Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that divided the country and caused chaos, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly tense and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the political, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are resistant to losing and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say such a time is imminent, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in universities but very few politicians or activists seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unity or the existing arrangement. They authors two pieces that strive for objectivity in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and societal data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," said the writer. "Debate implies an recognition of the notion that there may exist valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate say they prefer unification but reject increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his era is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate arguments, he said. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will eventually lose but both parties has possesses important lessons to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must join the debate, said O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
